Found this on jayski's site regarding this weekend's race and what must happen for each driver to make the chase.
15) #29-Kevin Harvick....has to gain 56 points on tenth place OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 80 points, Jeff Gordon by 30 points, and lose 36 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
14) #19-Jeremy Mayfield....has to gain 55 points on tenth place OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 79 points, Jeff Gordon by 29 points, and lose 35 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
13) #88 Dale Jarrett....has to gain 43 points on tenth place OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 67 points, Jeff Gordon by 17 points, and lose 49 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
12) #Bobby Labonte....Has to gain 36 points on tenth place OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 60 points, Jeff Gordon by 10 points, and lose 56 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
11) #42-Jamie Mcmurray....Has to gain 25 points on tenth place OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 49 points, lose by one point or less to Jeff Gordon, and lose 67 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
10) #6-Mark Martin....Has to lose 24 points or less to five contenders OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 24 points, lose 26 points or less to Jeff Gordon, and lose 92 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
9) #9-Kasey Kahne....Has to lose 33 points or less to five contenders OR has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 15 points, lose 35 points or less to Jeff Gordon, and 101 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot.
8) #12-Ryan Newman....Has to lose 45 points or less to five contenders OR Has to beat Jimmy Johnson by 4 points, lose 46 points or less to Jeff Gordon, and 112 points or less to Earnhardt Jr. to win wild card spot. If there are more than 10 drivers, the 11th-place driver will have his total reset to 5,000. If there are any other drivers who qualify, they also will be at 5,000 points.(9-9-2004)
I expect the top 10 to remain the same, with at most one of the 11 - 15 ranked drivers making it into the top ten. The 8th thru 10th drivers are hot right now and will be hard to get by. I give Harvick no chance of making the top 10. He has to get by 5 other drivers and is too many points down.
